Winner Prediction - Jun 14, 2026 - Group F

Sweden vs Tunisia: Who Will Win? Probability and Risk

Last updated: Jun 21, 2026 | Entertainment only, not betting advice

Quick Answer

The model lean for Sweden vs Tunisia is Sweden win (39%), the most likely score is 1-1, expected total goals are 2.21, and risk is high.

Key Takeaway

The model lean for Sweden vs Tunisia is Sweden win (39%), the most likely score is 1-1, expected total goals are 2.21, and risk is high.

Model leanSweden win 39%

Predicted score1-1

Expected total goals2.21

Risk levelhigh

39%Sweden win

29%Draw

32%Tunisia win

1.18 / 1.03xG

38%Over 2.5 goals

45%BTTS

Why Sweden vs Tunisia leans this way

Probability edge

The top model outcome is Sweden win at 39%; draw probability is 29%.

Goal tendency

Sweden xG 1.18, Tunisia xG 1.03, total 2.21.

Risk read

Current risk is high, total-goal expectation is 2.21, and the read can move before lineups are confirmed.

The useful read is not a guaranteed score; it is the model's current lean toward Sweden win at 39%. The 1-1 scoreline represents the densest part of the goal distribution, while lineups, early goals, red cards and match tempo can change the live picture. Start with the probability gap, then the high risk tag, then use lineup and goal context for a fuller view.

Trust

Data Status and Use Boundary

Sources: schedule.csv, game_predictions.csv, Official FIFA squad list: 48 teams / 1248 players.

Odds statusModel fair odds; official/market live source pending

Lineup statusLikely XI and availability update when official sources confirm

Forecast typePre-match model forecast

Use boundaryEntertainment only, not betting advice

Continue with related matches, teams and groups

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Model lean

Sweden vs Tunisia

Open the core winner probability read for this fixture.

Team hub

Sweden

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Group F

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Match compare tool

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Data Sources

Review public data, model estimates and pending-source status.

FAQ

Who is more likely to win Sweden vs Tunisia?Sweden win

The model currently leans Sweden win at 39%, with projected score 1-1.

What is the Sweden vs Tunisia score prediction?1-1

The model score is 1-1, expected total goals are 2.21, Over 2.5 is around 38%, and BTTS is around 45%.

Are the Sweden vs Tunisia odds official?Model fair odds; official/market live source pending

No. Current values are model fair odds; official/market live odds are pending and the page is entertainment reference only.