Completed reviews
Iran 2-2 New Zealand Post-Match Analysis
Iran vs New Zealand: quick verdict
Model prefers Iran at 61%, with a 2-1 score lean. This is a viewing reference, not betting advice.
AI citation: Iran leads Iran vs New Zealand at 61%; full 90-minute split is Iran 61%, Draw 25%, New Zealand 15%; likely score 2-1, total xG 2.22; market odds coverage 100%, official odds pending.
Iran 61% / Draw 25% / New Zealand 15%
Who is more likely to winIran 61%
Win probability61%
Predicted score2-1Most likely score, not a guaranteed result
Risk levelLow upset risk: model lean is clear / Low goal risk: lower-scoring profile / Lineup risk pending: starters can move the forecast
Data updatedJul 19, 2026, 02:04 AM
Pre-match predictionIran 61%, predicted score 2-1.
Post-match reviewActual 2-2. Direction missed. Score error 1; total-goals error 1.78. Group impact: review the linked standings path.
Key Takeaway
The final score was 2-2. The model lean missed, the projected score was 2-1, score error was 1, and total-goal error was 1.78.
Model hitMiss
Score error1
Goal error1.78
Group impactGroup G
The final score was 2-2. The model lean missed, the projected score was 2-1, score error was 1, and total-goal error was 1.78.
Post-Match Data Summary
| Final score | 2-2 |
|---|---|
| Pre-match predicted score | 2-1 |
| Model direction | Miss |
| Score error | 1 |
| Total-goal error | 1.78 |
| Actual vs expected goals | 4 / 2.22 |
Actual Result
Iran and New Zealand completed their Group G match on Jun 15, 2026. The final score was 2-2, producing a draw.
Pre-Match Forecast Review
The pre-match probabilities were Iran win 61%, draw 25%, and New Zealand win 15%. The highest-probability lean was Iran win, and the result call missed.
Expected goals were Iran 1.59 and New Zealand 0.63, which rounded to a 2-1 scoreline. The rounded score error was 1 goal(s).
Goals Review
The model expected about 2.22 total goals, while the match produced 4. Total-goal error was 1.78.
Model Backtest Learning Notes
Iran 2-2 New Zealand is reviewed from final score, pre-match xG, and model lean. The pre-match lean was Iran win, the actual result was draw, and the projected score was 2-1. The result direction missed, so the review focuses on what the pre-match probabilities failed to capture. Actual total goals were 4 versus a pre-match expectation of about 2.22, leaving a 1.78 total-goal error.
Pre-match leanIran win
Actual resultdraw
Score error1
Goal error1.78
Post-Match Scenario, Error and Group Impact
Iran 2-2 New Zealand is mainly a result direction missed review. The projected score was 2-1, score error was 1, and total-goal error was 1.78; the match played more open than the model expected. For Group G, the result changes points, goal difference and rotation pressure for the next fixtures.
Result directionresult direction missed
Goal tempothe match played more open than the model expected
StageGroup G
Next watchpoints / goal difference / rotation
Group Impact
This match counts toward Group G. Read it alongside points, goal difference, remaining fixtures, and lineup availability.
Players, Likely XI Candidates and Availability
This module uses the official FIFA Group G squad list: positions, clubs, international caps and goals.
IRN · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
Iran
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
Key players4
Likely XI candidates11/11
Injuries / suspensionssource pending
| Key players | Mehdi Taremi · FW · Olympiacos FC (GRE) · 109 caps · 59 goals Ehsan Haji Safi · DF · Sepahan SC (IRN) · 148 caps · 7 goals Alireza Jahanbakhsh Jirandeh · MF · FCV Dender EH (BEL) · 101 caps · 17 goals Ramin Rezaeiansemeskandi · DF · Foolad Khuzestan FC (IRN) · 77 caps · 10 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Ali Reza Safarbeiranvand · GK · Tractor Sazi Tabriz FC (IRN) · 90 caps · 0 goals Ehsan Haji Safi · DF · Sepahan SC (IRN) · 148 caps · 7 goals Ramin Rezaeiansemeskandi · DF · Foolad Khuzestan FC (IRN) · 77 caps · 10 goals Mohammadhossein Kanani Zadegan · DF · Persepolis FC (IRN) · 67 caps · 6 goals Milad Mohammadikeshmarzi · DF · Persepolis FC (IRN) · 80 caps · 1 goals Alireza Jahanbakhsh Jirandeh · MF · FCV Dender EH (BEL) · 101 caps · 17 goals Saeid Ezatolahi Afagh · MF · Shabab Al Ahli Club (UAE) · 87 caps · 2 goals Mohammad Mohebbi · MF · FC Rostov (RUS) · 40 caps · 14 goals Mehdi Taremi · FW · Olympiacos FC (GRE) · 109 caps · 59 goals Mehdi Ghayedi · FW · Al Nasr SC (UAE) · 31 caps · 10 goals Amirhossein Hosseinzadehtazehgheshlagh · FW · Tractor Sazi Tabriz FC (IRN) · 20 caps · 5 goals |
| Bench depth | Seyed Saman Ghoddoos · MF · Al Ittihad Kalba SCC (UAE) · 71 caps · 3 goals Mahdi Torabi · MF · Tractor Sazi Tabriz FC (IRN) · 53 caps · 7 goals Shojae Khalilzadeh · DF · Tractor Sazi Tabriz FC (IRN) · 61 caps · 2 goals Roozbeh Cheshmi · MF · Esteghlal Tehran FC (IRN) · 41 caps · 3 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 9 / MF: 8 / FW: 6 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
NZL · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
New Zealand
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
Key players4
Likely XI candidates11/11
Injuries / suspensionssource pending
| Key players | Christopher Grant Wood · FW · Nottingham Forest FC (ENG) · 93 caps · 45 goals Kosta Barbarouses · FW · WS Wanderers FC (AUS) · 76 caps · 10 goals Elijah Henry Just · MF · Motherwell FC (SCO) · 47 caps · 12 goals Michael Joseph Boxall · DF · Minnesota United FC (USA) · 67 caps · 1 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Maxime Teremoana Crocombe · GK · Millwall FC (ENG) · 27 caps · 0 goals Michael Joseph Boxall · DF · Minnesota United FC (USA) · 67 caps · 1 goals Timothy John Payne · DF · Wellington Phoenix FC (NZL) · 55 caps · 3 goals Thomas Jefferson Smith · DF · Braintree Town FC (ENG) · 57 caps · 2 goals Liberato Gianpaolo Cacace · DF · Wrexham AFC (WAL) · 40 caps · 1 goals Elijah Henry Just · MF · Motherwell FC (SCO) · 47 caps · 12 goals Marko Seufatu Nikola Stamenic · MF · Swansea City AFC (WAL) · 43 caps · 3 goals Callum William Mccowatt · MF · Silkeborg IF (DEN) · 36 caps · 5 goals Christopher Grant Wood · FW · Nottingham Forest FC (ENG) · 93 caps · 45 goals Kosta Barbarouses · FW · WS Wanderers FC (AUS) · 76 caps · 10 goals Benjamin Peter Waine · FW · Port Vale FC (ENG) · 31 caps · 9 goals |
| Bench depth | Sarpreet Singh · MF · Wellington Phoenix FC (NZL) · 31 caps · 3 goals Joe Zen Robert Bell · MF · Viking Stavanger (NOR) · 35 caps · 1 goals Ryan Jared Thomas · MF · PEC Zwolle (NED) · 28 caps · 3 goals Tyler Grant Bindon · DF · Sheeld United FC (ENG) · 28 caps · 2 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 9 / MF: 9 / FW: 5 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
Trust & Transparency
Last updatedJul 19, 2026, 02:03 AM EDT
SourcesSchedule CSV / prediction CSV / public match center
Review typeModel backtest
Risk noteEntertainment reference only
Similar match paths
FAQ
What was the final score for Iran vs New Zealand?2-2
The final score was 2-2, and the result is included in the Group G review.
Did the model hit the result direction?Miss
The pre-match lean was Iran win, and the result direction missed.
What was the score error?1
The predicted score was 2-1; score error across both teams was 1.
What was the total-goal error?1.78
Actual total goals were 4 versus an expectation of about 2.22, leaving a 1.78 total-goal error.
How does this affect the group?Group G
It affects Group G points, goal difference and qualification pressure for related fixtures.
Is this review betting advice?No
This page is for entertainment, viewing, and analysis reference only. It is not betting advice.
Conclusion
The final score was 2-2. The model lean missed, the projected score was 2-1, score error was 1, and total-goal error was 1.78.
For entertainment reference only. Forecasts, score probabilities, lineup analysis, and AI conclusions are not betting advice.