Completed reviews
Belgium 3-2 Senegal Post-Match Analysis
Belgium vs Senegal: quick verdict
Model prefers Senegal at 47%, with a 1-1 score lean. This is a viewing reference, not betting advice.
AI citation: Senegal leads Belgium vs Senegal at 47%; full 90-minute split is Belgium 26%, Draw 27%, Senegal 47%; likely score 1-1, total xG 2.44; market odds coverage 100%, official odds pending.
Belgium 26% / Draw 27% / Senegal 47%
Who is more likely to winSenegal 47%
Win probability47%
Predicted score1-1Most likely score, not a guaranteed result
Risk levelMedium upset risk: result path can swing / Low goal risk: lower-scoring profile / Lineup risk pending: starters can move the forecast
Data updatedJul 19, 2026, 02:04 AM
Pre-match predictionSenegal 47%, predicted score 1-1.
Post-match reviewActual 3-2. Direction missed. Score error 3; total-goals error 2.56. Group impact: review the linked standings path.
Key Takeaway
The final score was 3-2. The model lean missed, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.56.
Model hitMiss
Score error3
Goal error2.56
Stage impactKnockout stage
The final score was 3-2. The model lean missed, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.56.
Post-Match Data Summary
| Final score | 3-2 |
|---|---|
| Pre-match predicted score | 1-1 |
| Model direction | Miss |
| Score error | 3 |
| Total-goal error | 2.56 |
| Actual vs expected goals | 5 / 2.44 |
Actual Result
Belgium and Senegal completed their Knockout stage match on Jul 01, 2026. The final score was 3-2, producing Belgium win.
Pre-Match Forecast Review
The pre-match probabilities were Belgium win 26%, draw 27%, and Senegal win 47%. The highest-probability lean was Senegal win, and the result call missed.
Expected goals were Belgium 1.00 and Senegal 1.45, which rounded to a 1-1 scoreline. The rounded score error was 3 goal(s).
Goals Review
The model expected about 2.44 total goals, while the match produced 5. Total-goal error was 2.56.
Model Backtest Learning Notes
Belgium 3-2 Senegal is reviewed from final score, pre-match xG, and model lean. The pre-match lean was Senegal win, the actual result was Belgium, and the projected score was 1-1. The result direction missed, so the review focuses on what the pre-match probabilities failed to capture. Actual total goals were 5 versus a pre-match expectation of about 2.44, leaving a 2.56 total-goal error.
Pre-match leanSenegal win
Actual resultBelgium
Score error3
Goal error2.56
Post-Match Scenario, Error and Group Impact
Belgium 3-2 Senegal is mainly a result direction missed review. The projected score was 1-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.56; the match played more open than the model expected. For the knockout-stage path, the result changes advancement context, rotation pressure and related fixture reads.
Result directionresult direction missed
Goal tempothe match played more open than the model expected
StageKnockout stage
Next watchpoints / goal difference / rotation
Tournament Stage Impact
This match belongs to the knockout-stage or tournament-stage review path. Read it alongside advancement context, rotation pressure, lineup availability and related fixtures.
Players, Likely XI Candidates and Availability
This module uses the official FIFA squad list for the tournament-stage context: positions, clubs, international caps and goals.
BEL · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
Belgium
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
Key players4
Likely XI candidates11/11
Injuries / suspensionssource pending
| Key players | Romelu Lukaku Bolingoli · FW · SSC Napoli (ITA) · 132 caps · 93 goals Kevin De Bruyne · MF · SSC Napoli (ITA) · 124 caps · 38 goals Axel Laurent A Witsel · MF · Girona FC (ESP) · 140 caps · 12 goals Youri Marion A Tielemans · MF · Aston Villa FC (ENG) · 90 caps · 15 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Thibaut Nicolas M Courtois · GK · Real Madrid C. F. (ESP) · 115 caps · 0 goals Thomas Andre A Meunier · DF · Lille OSC (FRA) · 83 caps · 10 goals Timothy Castagne · DF · Fulham FC (ENG) · 69 caps · 2 goals Arthur Nicolas R Theate · DF · Eintracht Frankfurt (GER) · 36 caps · 1 goals Maxim Peter M De Cuyper · DF · Brighton & Hove Albion FC (ENG) · 25 caps · 4 goals Kevin De Bruyne · MF · SSC Napoli (ITA) · 124 caps · 38 goals Axel Laurent A Witsel · MF · Girona FC (ESP) · 140 caps · 12 goals Youri Marion A Tielemans · MF · Aston Villa FC (ENG) · 90 caps · 15 goals Romelu Lukaku Bolingoli · FW · SSC Napoli (ITA) · 132 caps · 93 goals Leandro Trossard · FW · Arsenal FC (ENG) · 57 caps · 14 goals Jeremy Baffour Doku · FW · Manchester City FC (ENG) · 48 caps · 7 goals |
| Bench depth | Hans Vanaken · MF · Club Brugge (BEL) · 40 caps · 8 goals Charles Marc S De Ketelaere · FW · Atalanta Bergamo (ITA) · 35 caps · 9 goals Dodi Lukebakio Ngandoli · FW · SL Benca (POR) · 33 caps · 6 goals Alexis Jesse M Saelemaekers · MF · AC Milan (ITA) · 28 caps · 3 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 9 / MF: 8 / FW: 6 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
SEN · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
Senegal
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
Key players4
Likely XI candidates11/11
Injuries / suspensionssource pending
| Key players | Sadio Mane · FW · Al Nassr FC (KSA) · 134 caps · 54 goals Idrissa Gana Gueye · MF · Everton FC (ENG) · 140 caps · 7 goals Ismaila Sarr · FW · Crystal Palace FC (ENG) · 88 caps · 23 goals Kalidou Koulibaly · DF · Al Hilal SC (KSA) · 106 caps · 2 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Edouard Osoque Mendy · GK · Al Ahli FC (KSA) · 60 caps · 0 goals Kalidou Koulibaly · DF · Al Hilal SC (KSA) · 106 caps · 2 goals Krepin Diatta · DF · AS Monaco (FRA) · 66 caps · 2 goals Abdoulaye Seck · DF · Maccabi Haifa FC (ISR) · 24 caps · 4 goals Moussa Niakhate · DF · Olympique Lyonnais (FRA) · 36 caps · 0 goals Idrissa Gana Gueye · MF · Everton FC (ENG) · 140 caps · 7 goals Lamine Camara · MF · AS Monaco (FRA) · 49 caps · 7 goals Pape Alassane Gueye · MF · Villarreal CF (ESP) · 46 caps · 8 goals Sadio Mane · FW · Al Nassr FC (KSA) · 134 caps · 54 goals Ismaila Sarr · FW · Crystal Palace FC (ENG) · 88 caps · 23 goals Nicolas Jackson · FW · FC Bayern München (GER) · 38 caps · 8 goals |
| Bench depth | Iliman Cheikh Baroy Ndiaye · FW · Everton FC (ENG) · 44 caps · 5 goals Pape Matar Sarr · MF · Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG) · 43 caps · 4 goals Mouhamadou Habib Mbacke Diarra · MF · Sunderland AFC (ENG) · 24 caps · 6 goals Ismaila Pathe Ciss · MF · Rayo Vallecano (ESP) · 35 caps · 0 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 8 / MF: 7 / FW: 8 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
Trust & Transparency
Last updatedJul 19, 2026, 02:03 AM EDT
SourcesSchedule CSV / prediction CSV / public match center
Review typeModel backtest
Risk noteEntertainment reference only
Similar match paths
FAQ
What was the final score for Belgium vs Senegal?3-2
The final score was 3-2, and the result is included in the Knockout stage review.
Did the model hit the result direction?Miss
The pre-match lean was Senegal win, and the result direction missed.
What was the score error?3
The predicted score was 1-1; score error across both teams was 3.
What was the total-goal error?2.56
Actual total goals were 5 versus an expectation of about 2.44, leaving a 2.56 total-goal error.
How does this affect the group?Knockout stage
It affects the knockout-stage path, advancement context, rotation pressure and related fixture reads.
Is this review betting advice?No
This page is for entertainment, viewing, and analysis reference only. It is not betting advice.
Conclusion
The final score was 3-2. The model lean missed, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.56.
For entertainment reference only. Forecasts, score probabilities, lineup analysis, and AI conclusions are not betting advice.