Completed reviews
United States 1-4 Belgium Post-Match Analysis
United States vs Belgium: quick verdict
Model prefers Belgium at 47%, with a 1-2 score lean. This is a viewing reference, not betting advice.
AI citation: Belgium leads United States vs Belgium at 47%; full 90-minute split is United States 29%, Draw 24%, Belgium 47%; likely score 1-2, total xG 2.95; market odds coverage 100%, official odds pending.
United States 29% / Draw 24% / Belgium 47%
Who is more likely to winBelgium 47%
Win probability47%
Predicted score1-2Most likely score, not a guaranteed result
Risk levelMedium upset risk: result path can swing / Medium goal risk: leans 2-3 goals / Lineup risk pending: starters can move the forecast
Data updatedJul 19, 2026, 02:04 AM
Pre-match predictionBelgium 47%, predicted score 1-2.
Post-match reviewActual 1-4. Direction hit. Score error 2; total-goals error 2.05. Group impact: review the linked standings path.
Key Takeaway
The final score was 1-4. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-2, score error was 2, and total-goal error was 2.05.
Model hitHit
Score error2
Goal error2.05
Stage impactKnockout stage
The final score was 1-4. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-2, score error was 2, and total-goal error was 2.05.
Post-Match Data Summary
| Final score | 1-4 |
|---|---|
| Pre-match predicted score | 1-2 |
| Model direction | Hit |
| Score error | 2 |
| Total-goal error | 2.05 |
| Actual vs expected goals | 5 / 2.95 |
Actual Result
United States and Belgium completed their Knockout stage match on Jul 07, 2026. The final score was 1-4, producing Belgium win.
Pre-Match Forecast Review
The pre-match probabilities were United States win 29%, draw 24%, and Belgium win 47%. The highest-probability lean was Belgium win, and the result call hit.
Expected goals were United States 1.27 and Belgium 1.68, which rounded to a 1-2 scoreline. The rounded score error was 2 goal(s).
Goals Review
The model expected about 2.95 total goals, while the match produced 5. Total-goal error was 2.05.
Model Backtest Learning Notes
United States 1-4 Belgium is reviewed from final score, pre-match xG, and model lean. The pre-match lean was Belgium win, the actual result was Belgium, and the projected score was 1-2. The result direction was useful, but score error still shows whether goals were over- or under-estimated. Actual total goals were 5 versus a pre-match expectation of about 2.95, leaving a 2.05 total-goal error.
Pre-match leanBelgium win
Actual resultBelgium
Score error2
Goal error2.05
Post-Match Scenario, Error and Group Impact
United States 1-4 Belgium is mainly a result direction hit review. The projected score was 1-2, score error was 2, and total-goal error was 2.05; the match played more open than the model expected. For the knockout-stage path, the result changes advancement context, rotation pressure and related fixture reads.
Result directionresult direction hit
Goal tempothe match played more open than the model expected
StageKnockout stage
Next watchpoints / goal difference / rotation
Tournament Stage Impact
This match belongs to the knockout-stage or tournament-stage review path. Read it alongside advancement context, rotation pressure, lineup availability and related fixtures.
Players, Likely XI Candidates and Availability
This module uses the official FIFA squad list for the tournament-stage context: positions, clubs, international caps and goals.
USA · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
United States
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
Key players4
Likely XI candidates11/11
Injuries / suspensionssource pending
| Key players | Christian Mate Pulisic · FW · AC Milan (ITA) · 90 caps · 33 goals Weston James Earl Mc Kennie · MF · Juventus FC (ITA) · 71 caps · 12 goals Timothy Michael Ream · DF · Charlotte FC (USA) · 86 caps · 1 goals Brenden Russell Aaronson · FW · Leeds United FC (ENG) · 59 caps · 9 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Matthew Charles Turner · GK · New England Revolution (USA) · 55 caps · 0 goals Timothy Michael Ream · DF · Charlotte FC (USA) · 86 caps · 1 goals Antonee Robinson · DF · Fulham FC (ENG) · 58 caps · 5 goals Sergiño Gianni Dest · DF · PSV Eindhoven (NED) · 44 caps · 3 goals Miles Gordon Robinson · DF · FC Cincinnatti (USA) · 41 caps · 3 goals Weston James Earl Mc Kennie · MF · Juventus FC (ITA) · 71 caps · 12 goals Giovanni Alejandro Reyna · MF · Borussia Mönchengladbach (GER) · 43 caps · 10 goals Tyler Shaan Adams · MF · AFC Bournemouth (ENG) · 58 caps · 2 goals Christian Mate Pulisic · FW · AC Milan (ITA) · 90 caps · 33 goals Brenden Russell Aaronson · FW · Leeds United FC (ENG) · 59 caps · 9 goals Ricardo Daniel Pepi · FW · PSV Eindhoven (NED) · 42 caps · 13 goals |
| Bench depth | Timothy Tarpeh Weah · FW · Olympique Marseille (FRA) · 53 caps · 7 goals Folarin Jolaoluwa Balogun · FW · AS Monaco (FRA) · 31 caps · 12 goals Malik Leon Tillman · MF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen (GER) · 35 caps · 5 goals Christopher Jeffrey Richards · DF · Crystal Palace FC (ENG) · 40 caps · 3 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 10 / MF: 6 / FW: 7 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
BEL · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
Belgium
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
Key players4
Likely XI candidates11/11
Injuries / suspensionssource pending
| Key players | Romelu Lukaku Bolingoli · FW · SSC Napoli (ITA) · 132 caps · 93 goals Kevin De Bruyne · MF · SSC Napoli (ITA) · 124 caps · 38 goals Axel Laurent A Witsel · MF · Girona FC (ESP) · 140 caps · 12 goals Youri Marion A Tielemans · MF · Aston Villa FC (ENG) · 90 caps · 15 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Thibaut Nicolas M Courtois · GK · Real Madrid C. F. (ESP) · 115 caps · 0 goals Thomas Andre A Meunier · DF · Lille OSC (FRA) · 83 caps · 10 goals Timothy Castagne · DF · Fulham FC (ENG) · 69 caps · 2 goals Arthur Nicolas R Theate · DF · Eintracht Frankfurt (GER) · 36 caps · 1 goals Maxim Peter M De Cuyper · DF · Brighton & Hove Albion FC (ENG) · 25 caps · 4 goals Kevin De Bruyne · MF · SSC Napoli (ITA) · 124 caps · 38 goals Axel Laurent A Witsel · MF · Girona FC (ESP) · 140 caps · 12 goals Youri Marion A Tielemans · MF · Aston Villa FC (ENG) · 90 caps · 15 goals Romelu Lukaku Bolingoli · FW · SSC Napoli (ITA) · 132 caps · 93 goals Leandro Trossard · FW · Arsenal FC (ENG) · 57 caps · 14 goals Jeremy Baffour Doku · FW · Manchester City FC (ENG) · 48 caps · 7 goals |
| Bench depth | Hans Vanaken · MF · Club Brugge (BEL) · 40 caps · 8 goals Charles Marc S De Ketelaere · FW · Atalanta Bergamo (ITA) · 35 caps · 9 goals Dodi Lukebakio Ngandoli · FW · SL Benca (POR) · 33 caps · 6 goals Alexis Jesse M Saelemaekers · MF · AC Milan (ITA) · 28 caps · 3 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 9 / MF: 8 / FW: 6 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
Trust & Transparency
Last updatedJul 19, 2026, 02:03 AM EDT
SourcesSchedule CSV / prediction CSV / public match center
Review typeModel backtest
Risk noteEntertainment reference only
Similar match paths
FAQ
What was the final score for United States vs Belgium?1-4
The final score was 1-4, and the result is included in the Knockout stage review.
Did the model hit the result direction?Hit
The pre-match lean was Belgium win, and the result direction hit.
What was the score error?2
The predicted score was 1-2; score error across both teams was 2.
What was the total-goal error?2.05
Actual total goals were 5 versus an expectation of about 2.95, leaving a 2.05 total-goal error.
How does this affect the group?Knockout stage
It affects the knockout-stage path, advancement context, rotation pressure and related fixture reads.
Is this review betting advice?No
This page is for entertainment, viewing, and analysis reference only. It is not betting advice.
Conclusion
The final score was 1-4. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-2, score error was 2, and total-goal error was 2.05.
For entertainment reference only. Forecasts, score probabilities, lineup analysis, and AI conclusions are not betting advice.