Completed reviews
Sweden 5-1 Tunisia Post-Match Analysis
Key Takeaway
The final score was 5-1. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 4, and total-goal error was 3.79.
Model hitHit
Score error4
Goal error3.79
Group impactGroup F
The final score was 5-1. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 4, and total-goal error was 3.79.
Post-Match Data Summary
| Final score | 5-1 |
|---|---|
| Pre-match predicted score | 1-1 |
| Model direction | Hit |
| Score error | 4 |
| Total-goal error | 3.79 |
| Actual vs expected goals | 6 / 2.21 |
Actual Result
Sweden and Tunisia completed their Group F match on Jun 14, 2026. The final score was 5-1, producing Sweden win.
Pre-Match Forecast Review
The pre-match probabilities were Sweden win 39%, draw 29%, and Tunisia win 32%. The highest-probability lean was Sweden win, and the result call hit.
Expected goals were Sweden 1.18 and Tunisia 1.03, which rounded to a 1-1 scoreline. The rounded score error was 4 goal(s).
Goals Review
The model expected about 2.21 total goals, while the match produced 6. Total-goal error was 3.79.
Model Backtest Learning Notes
Sweden 5-1 Tunisia is reviewed from final score, pre-match xG, and model lean. The pre-match lean was Sweden win, the actual result was Sweden, and the projected score was 1-1. The result direction was useful, but score error still shows whether goals were over- or under-estimated. Actual total goals were 6 versus a pre-match expectation of about 2.21, leaving a 3.79 total-goal error.
Pre-match leanSweden win
Actual resultSweden
Score error4
Goal error3.79
Group Impact
This match counts toward Group F. Read it alongside points, goal difference, remaining fixtures, and lineup availability.
Trust & Transparency
Last updatedJun 18, 2026, 12:27 AM EDT
SourcesSchedule CSV / prediction CSV / public match center
Review typeModel backtest
Risk noteEntertainment reference only
Conclusion
The final score was 5-1. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 4, and total-goal error was 3.79.
For entertainment reference only. Forecasts, score probabilities, lineup analysis, and AI conclusions are not betting advice.