Completed reviews
Sweden 5-1 Tunisia Post-Match Analysis
Sweden vs Tunisia: quick verdict
Model prefers Sweden at 39%, with a 1-1 score lean. This is a viewing reference, not betting advice.
AI citation: Sweden leads Sweden vs Tunisia at 39%; full 90-minute split is Sweden 39%, Draw 29%, Tunisia 32%; likely score 1-1, total xG 2.21; market odds coverage 100%, official odds pending.
Sweden 39% / Draw 29% / Tunisia 32%
Who is more likely to winSweden 39%
Win probability39%
Predicted score1-1Most likely score, not a guaranteed result
Risk levelHigh upset risk: no clean model edge / Low goal risk: lower-scoring profile / Lineup risk pending: starters can move the forecast
Data updatedJul 19, 2026, 02:04 AM
Pre-match predictionSweden 39%, predicted score 1-1.
Post-match reviewActual 5-1. Direction hit. Score error 4; total-goals error 3.79. Group impact: review the linked standings path.
Key Takeaway
The final score was 5-1. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 4, and total-goal error was 3.79.
Model hitHit
Score error4
Goal error3.79
Group impactGroup F
The final score was 5-1. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 4, and total-goal error was 3.79.
Post-Match Data Summary
| Final score | 5-1 |
|---|---|
| Pre-match predicted score | 1-1 |
| Model direction | Hit |
| Score error | 4 |
| Total-goal error | 3.79 |
| Actual vs expected goals | 6 / 2.21 |
Actual Result
Sweden and Tunisia completed their Group F match on Jun 14, 2026. The final score was 5-1, producing Sweden win.
Pre-Match Forecast Review
The pre-match probabilities were Sweden win 39%, draw 29%, and Tunisia win 32%. The highest-probability lean was Sweden win, and the result call hit.
Expected goals were Sweden 1.18 and Tunisia 1.03, which rounded to a 1-1 scoreline. The rounded score error was 4 goal(s).
Goals Review
The model expected about 2.21 total goals, while the match produced 6. Total-goal error was 3.79.
Model Backtest Learning Notes
Sweden 5-1 Tunisia is reviewed from final score, pre-match xG, and model lean. The pre-match lean was Sweden win, the actual result was Sweden, and the projected score was 1-1. The result direction was useful, but score error still shows whether goals were over- or under-estimated. Actual total goals were 6 versus a pre-match expectation of about 2.21, leaving a 3.79 total-goal error.
Pre-match leanSweden win
Actual resultSweden
Score error4
Goal error3.79
Post-Match Scenario, Error and Group Impact
Sweden 5-1 Tunisia is mainly a result direction hit review. The projected score was 1-1, score error was 4, and total-goal error was 3.79; the match played more open than the model expected. For Group F, the result changes points, goal difference and rotation pressure for the next fixtures.
Result directionresult direction hit
Goal tempothe match played more open than the model expected
StageGroup F
Next watchpoints / goal difference / rotation
Group Impact
This match counts toward Group F. Read it alongside points, goal difference, remaining fixtures, and lineup availability.
Players, Likely XI Candidates and Availability
This module uses the official FIFA Group F squad list: positions, clubs, international caps and goals.
SWE · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
Sweden
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
Key players4
Likely XI candidates11/11
Injuries / suspensionssource pending
| Key players | Alexander Isak · FW · Liverpool FC (ENG) · 62 caps · 18 goals Viktor Einar Gyökeres · FW · Arsenal FC (ENG) · 37 caps · 21 goals Victor Jörgen Nilsson Lindelöf · DF · Aston Villa FC (ENG) · 80 caps · 3 goals Anthony David Junior Elanga · FW · Newcastle United FC (ENG) · 34 caps · 8 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Bo Kristoffer Nordfeldt · GK · AIK Stockholm (SWE) · 23 caps · 0 goals Victor Jörgen Nilsson Lindelöf · DF · Aston Villa FC (ENG) · 80 caps · 3 goals Isak Malcolm Kwaku Hien · DF · Atalanta Bergamo (ITA) · 32 caps · 0 goals Gabriel Johan Gudmundsson · DF · Leeds United FC (ENG) · 28 caps · 0 goals Gustaf Johan Lagerbielke · DF · SC Braga (POR) · 15 caps · 2 goals Mattias Olof Svanberg · MF · VfL Wolfsburg (GER) · 42 caps · 3 goals Ken Sema · MF · Pafos FC (CYP) · 33 caps · 5 goals Yasin Ayari · MF · Brighton & Hove Albion FC (ENG) · 25 caps · 5 goals Alexander Isak · FW · Liverpool FC (ENG) · 62 caps · 18 goals Viktor Einar Gyökeres · FW · Arsenal FC (ENG) · 37 caps · 21 goals Anthony David Junior Elanga · FW · Newcastle United FC (ENG) · 34 caps · 8 goals |
| Bench depth | Jesper Kewe Karlström · MF · Udinese (ITA) · 26 caps · 0 goals Erik Benjamin Nygren · MF · Celtic FC (SCO) · 15 caps · 3 goals Håkan Gustaf Nilsson · FW · Club Brugge (BEL) · 10 caps · 4 goals Carl Anders Theodor Starfelt · DF · RC Celta Vigo (ESP) · 19 caps · 0 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 11 / MF: 7 / FW: 5 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
TUN · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
Tunisia
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
Key players4
Likely XI candidates11/11
Injuries / suspensionssource pending
| Key players | Ellyes Joris Skhiri · MF · Eintracht Frankfurt (GER) · 86 caps · 4 goals Montassar Omar Talbi · DF · FC Lorient (FRA) · 67 caps · 4 goals Ali Elabdi · DF · OGC Nice (FRA) · 49 caps · 7 goals Dylan Daniel Mahmoud Bronn · DF · Servette FC (SUI) · 53 caps · 2 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Aymen Dahmen · GK · CS Sfaxien (TUN) · 39 caps · 0 goals Montassar Omar Talbi · DF · FC Lorient (FRA) · 67 caps · 4 goals Ali Elabdi · DF · OGC Nice (FRA) · 49 caps · 7 goals Dylan Daniel Mahmoud Bronn · DF · Servette FC (SUI) · 53 caps · 2 goals Yan Valery · DF · BSC Young Boys (SUI) · 25 caps · 0 goals Ellyes Joris Skhiri · MF · Eintracht Frankfurt (GER) · 86 caps · 4 goals Anis Ben Slimane · MF · Norwich City FC (ENG) · 43 caps · 4 goals Hannibal Mejbri · MF · Burnley FC (ENG) · 48 caps · 1 goals Firas Chaouat · FW · Club Africain (TUN) · 33 caps · 6 goals Mohamed Elyes Achouri · FW · FC København (DEN) · 33 caps · 5 goals Hazem Mastouri · FW · FC Dynamo Makhachkala (RUS) · 20 caps · 5 goals |
| Bench depth | Elias Saad · FW · Hannover 96 (GER) · 17 caps · 3 goals Ismael Seifallah Gharbi · MF · FC Augsburg (GER) · 20 caps · 2 goals Ahmed Mortadha Ben Ouanes · DF · Kasımpaşa SK (TUR) · 19 caps · 0 goals Sebastian Tounekti · MF · Celtic FC (SCO) · 15 caps · 1 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 10 / MF: 8 / FW: 5 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
Trust & Transparency
Last updatedJul 19, 2026, 02:03 AM EDT
SourcesSchedule CSV / prediction CSV / public match center
Review typeModel backtest
Risk noteEntertainment reference only
Similar match paths
FAQ
What was the final score for Sweden vs Tunisia?5-1
The final score was 5-1, and the result is included in the Group F review.
Did the model hit the result direction?Hit
The pre-match lean was Sweden win, and the result direction hit.
What was the score error?4
The predicted score was 1-1; score error across both teams was 4.
What was the total-goal error?3.79
Actual total goals were 6 versus an expectation of about 2.21, leaving a 3.79 total-goal error.
How does this affect the group?Group F
It affects Group F points, goal difference and qualification pressure for related fixtures.
Is this review betting advice?No
This page is for entertainment, viewing, and analysis reference only. It is not betting advice.
Conclusion
The final score was 5-1. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 4, and total-goal error was 3.79.
For entertainment reference only. Forecasts, score probabilities, lineup analysis, and AI conclusions are not betting advice.