Completed reviews
Netherlands 5-1 Sweden Post-Match Analysis
Netherlands vs Sweden: quick verdict
Model prefers Netherlands at 57%, with a 2-1 score lean. This is a viewing reference, not betting advice.
AI citation: Netherlands is the model lean at 57%; likely score path 2-1.
Netherlands 57% / Draw 22% / Sweden 22%
Who is more likely to winNetherlands 57%
Win probability57%
Predicted score2-1Most likely score, not a guaranteed result
Risk levelMedium upset risk: result path can swing / High goal risk: open scoring profile / Lineup risk pending: starters can move the forecast
Data updatedJun 20, 2026, 11:13 PM
Pre-match predictionNetherlands 57%, predicted score 2-1.
Post-match reviewActual 5-1. Direction hit. Score error 3; total-goals error 2.90. Group impact: review the linked standings path.
Key Takeaway
The final score was 5-1. The model lean hit, the projected score was 2-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.90.
Model hitHit
Score error3
Goal error2.90
Group impactGroup F
The final score was 5-1. The model lean hit, the projected score was 2-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.90.
Post-Match Data Summary
| Final score | 5-1 |
|---|---|
| Pre-match predicted score | 2-1 |
| Model direction | Hit |
| Score error | 3 |
| Total-goal error | 2.90 |
| Actual vs expected goals | 6 / 3.10 |
Actual Result
Netherlands and Sweden completed their Group F match on Jun 20, 2026. The final score was 5-1, producing Netherlands win.
Pre-Match Forecast Review
The pre-match probabilities were Netherlands win 57%, draw 22%, and Sweden win 22%. The highest-probability lean was Netherlands win, and the result call hit.
Expected goals were Netherlands 1.97 and Sweden 1.14, which rounded to a 2-1 scoreline. The rounded score error was 3 goal(s).
Goals Review
The model expected about 3.10 total goals, while the match produced 6. Total-goal error was 2.90.
Model Backtest Learning Notes
Netherlands 5-1 Sweden is reviewed from final score, pre-match xG, and model lean. The pre-match lean was Netherlands win, the actual result was Netherlands, and the projected score was 2-1. The result direction was useful, but score error still shows whether goals were over- or under-estimated. Actual total goals were 6 versus a pre-match expectation of about 3.10, leaving a 2.90 total-goal error.
Pre-match leanNetherlands win
Actual resultNetherlands
Score error3
Goal error2.90
Post-Match Scenario, Error and Group Impact
Netherlands 5-1 Sweden is mainly a result direction hit review. The projected score was 2-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.90; the match played more open than the model expected. For Group F, the result changes points, goal difference and rotation pressure for the next fixtures.
Result directionresult direction hit
Goal tempothe match played more open than the model expected
GroupGroup F
Next watchpoints / goal difference / rotation
Group Impact
This match counts toward Group F. Read it alongside points, goal difference, remaining fixtures, and lineup availability.
Players, Likely XI Candidates and Availability
This module uses the official FIFA Group F squad list: positions, clubs, international caps and goals.
NED · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
Netherlands
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
Key players4
Likely XI candidates11/11
Injuries / suspensionssource pending
| Key players | Memphis Depay · FW · SC Corinthians (BRA) · 110 caps · 55 goals Virgil Van Dijk · DF · Liverpool FC (ENG) · 93 caps · 13 goals Cody Mathès Gakpo · FW · Liverpool FC (ENG) · 51 caps · 21 goals Denzel Justus Morris Dumfries · DF · FC Internazionale Milano (ITA) · 73 caps · 11 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Bart Verbruggen · GK · Brighton & Hove Albion FC (ENG) · 30 caps · 0 goals Virgil Van Dijk · DF · Liverpool FC (ENG) · 93 caps · 13 goals Denzel Justus Morris Dumfries · DF · FC Internazionale Milano (ITA) · 73 caps · 11 goals Nathan Benjamin Ake · DF · Manchester City FC (ENG) · 60 caps · 5 goals Micky Van De Ven · DF · Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG) · 22 caps · 1 goals Frenkie De Jong · MF · FC Barcelona (ESP) · 67 caps · 2 goals Tijjani Martinus Jan Reijnders · MF · Manchester City FC (ENG) · 33 caps · 7 goals Marten Elco De Roon · MF · Atalanta Bergamo (ITA) · 43 caps · 1 goals Memphis Depay · FW · SC Corinthians (BRA) · 110 caps · 55 goals Cody Mathès Gakpo · FW · Liverpool FC (ENG) · 51 caps · 21 goals Wout François Maria Weghorst · FW · AFC Ajax (NED) · 52 caps · 14 goals |
| Bench depth | Donyell Malen · FW · AS Roma (ITA) · 54 caps · 13 goals Teun Koopmeiners · MF · Juventus FC (ITA) · 29 caps · 3 goals Ryan Jiro Gravenberch · MF · Liverpool FC (ENG) · 28 caps · 1 goals Noa Noëll Lang · FW · Galatasaray SK (TUR) · 15 caps · 3 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 8 / MF: 8 / FW: 7 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
SWE · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
Sweden
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
Key players4
Likely XI candidates11/11
Injuries / suspensionssource pending
| Key players | Alexander Isak · FW · Liverpool FC (ENG) · 59 caps · 18 goals Viktor Einar Gyökeres · FW · Arsenal FC (ENG) · 34 caps · 21 goals Victor Jörgen Nilsson Lindelöf · DF · Aston Villa FC (ENG) · 77 caps · 3 goals Anthony David Junior Elanga · FW · Newcastle United FC (ENG) · 31 caps · 6 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Bo Kristoffer Nordfeldt · GK · AIK Stockholm (SWE) · 22 caps · 0 goals Victor Jörgen Nilsson Lindelöf · DF · Aston Villa FC (ENG) · 77 caps · 3 goals Isak Malcolm Kwaku Hien · DF · Atalanta Bergamo (ITA) · 30 caps · 0 goals Gabriel Johan Gudmundsson · DF · Leeds United FC (ENG) · 25 caps · 0 goals Gustaf Johan Lagerbielke · DF · SC Braga (POR) · 12 caps · 2 goals Mattias Olof Svanberg · MF · VfL Wolfsburg (GER) · 41 caps · 3 goals Ken Sema · MF · Pafos FC (CYP) · 32 caps · 5 goals Yasin Ayari · MF · Brighton & Hove Albion FC (ENG) · 22 caps · 5 goals Alexander Isak · FW · Liverpool FC (ENG) · 59 caps · 18 goals Viktor Einar Gyökeres · FW · Arsenal FC (ENG) · 34 caps · 21 goals Anthony David Junior Elanga · FW · Newcastle United FC (ENG) · 31 caps · 6 goals |
| Bench depth | Jesper Kewe Karlström · MF · Udinese (ITA) · 25 caps · 0 goals Håkan Gustaf Nilsson · FW · Club Brugge (BEL) · 9 caps · 4 goals Erik Benjamin Nygren · MF · Celtic FC (SCO) · 12 caps · 3 goals Carl Anders Theodor Starfelt · DF · RC Celta Vigo (ESP) · 18 caps · 0 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 11 / MF: 7 / FW: 5 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
Trust & Transparency
Last updatedJun 20, 2026, 11:12 PM EDT
SourcesSchedule CSV / prediction CSV / public match center
Review typeModel backtest
Risk noteEntertainment reference only
Similar match paths
FAQ
What was the final score for Netherlands vs Sweden?5-1
The final score was 5-1, and the result is included in the Group F review.
Did the model hit the result direction?Hit
The pre-match lean was Netherlands win, and the result direction hit.
What was the score error?3
The predicted score was 2-1; score error across both teams was 3.
What was the total-goal error?2.90
Actual total goals were 6 versus an expectation of about 3.10, leaving a 2.90 total-goal error.
How does this affect the group?Group F
It affects Group F points, goal difference and qualification pressure for related fixtures.
Is this review betting advice?No
This page is for entertainment, viewing, and analysis reference only. It is not betting advice.
Conclusion
The final score was 5-1. The model lean hit, the projected score was 2-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.90.
For entertainment reference only. Forecasts, score probabilities, lineup analysis, and AI conclusions are not betting advice.