Completed reviews
United States 4-1 Paraguay Post-Match Analysis
United States vs Paraguay: quick verdict
Model prefers United States at 47%, with a 1-1 score lean. This is a viewing reference, not betting advice.
AI citation: United States leads United States vs Paraguay at 47%; full 90-minute split is United States 47%, Draw 29%, Paraguay 25%; likely score 1-1, total xG 2.14; market odds coverage 100%, official odds pending.
United States 47% / Draw 29% / Paraguay 25%
Who is more likely to winUnited States 47%
Win probability47%
Predicted score1-1Most likely score, not a guaranteed result
Risk levelMedium upset risk: result path can swing / Low goal risk: lower-scoring profile / Lineup risk pending: starters can move the forecast
Data updatedJul 19, 2026, 02:04 AM
Pre-match predictionUnited States 47%, predicted score 1-1.
Post-match reviewActual 4-1. Direction hit. Score error 3; total-goals error 2.86. Group impact: review the linked standings path.
Key Takeaway
The final score was 4-1. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.86.
Model hitHit
Score error3
Goal error2.86
Group impactGroup D
The final score was 4-1. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.86.
Post-Match Data Summary
| Final score | 4-1 |
|---|---|
| Pre-match predicted score | 1-1 |
| Model direction | Hit |
| Score error | 3 |
| Total-goal error | 2.86 |
| Actual vs expected goals | 5 / 2.14 |
Actual Result
United States and Paraguay completed their Group D match on Jun 12, 2026. The final score was 4-1, producing United States win.
Pre-Match Forecast Review
The pre-match probabilities were United States win 47%, draw 29%, and Paraguay win 25%. The highest-probability lean was United States win, and the result call hit.
Expected goals were United States 1.29 and Paraguay 0.85, which rounded to a 1-1 scoreline. The rounded score error was 3 goal(s).
Goals Review
The model expected about 2.14 total goals, while the match produced 5. Total-goal error was 2.86.
Model Backtest Learning Notes
United States 4-1 Paraguay is reviewed from final score, pre-match xG, and model lean. The pre-match lean was United States win, the actual result was United States, and the projected score was 1-1. The result direction was useful, but score error still shows whether goals were over- or under-estimated. Actual total goals were 5 versus a pre-match expectation of about 2.14, leaving a 2.86 total-goal error.
Pre-match leanUnited States win
Actual resultUnited States
Score error3
Goal error2.86
Post-Match Scenario, Error and Group Impact
United States 4-1 Paraguay is mainly a result direction hit review. The projected score was 1-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.86; the match played more open than the model expected. For Group D, the result changes points, goal difference and rotation pressure for the next fixtures.
Result directionresult direction hit
Goal tempothe match played more open than the model expected
StageGroup D
Next watchpoints / goal difference / rotation
Group Impact
This match counts toward Group D. Read it alongside points, goal difference, remaining fixtures, and lineup availability.
Players, Likely XI Candidates and Availability
This module uses the official FIFA Group D squad list: positions, clubs, international caps and goals.
USA · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
United States
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
Key players4
Likely XI candidates11/11
Injuries / suspensionssource pending
| Key players | Christian Mate Pulisic · FW · AC Milan (ITA) · 90 caps · 33 goals Weston James Earl Mc Kennie · MF · Juventus FC (ITA) · 71 caps · 12 goals Timothy Michael Ream · DF · Charlotte FC (USA) · 86 caps · 1 goals Brenden Russell Aaronson · FW · Leeds United FC (ENG) · 59 caps · 9 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Matthew Charles Turner · GK · New England Revolution (USA) · 55 caps · 0 goals Timothy Michael Ream · DF · Charlotte FC (USA) · 86 caps · 1 goals Antonee Robinson · DF · Fulham FC (ENG) · 58 caps · 5 goals Sergiño Gianni Dest · DF · PSV Eindhoven (NED) · 44 caps · 3 goals Miles Gordon Robinson · DF · FC Cincinnatti (USA) · 41 caps · 3 goals Weston James Earl Mc Kennie · MF · Juventus FC (ITA) · 71 caps · 12 goals Giovanni Alejandro Reyna · MF · Borussia Mönchengladbach (GER) · 43 caps · 10 goals Tyler Shaan Adams · MF · AFC Bournemouth (ENG) · 58 caps · 2 goals Christian Mate Pulisic · FW · AC Milan (ITA) · 90 caps · 33 goals Brenden Russell Aaronson · FW · Leeds United FC (ENG) · 59 caps · 9 goals Ricardo Daniel Pepi · FW · PSV Eindhoven (NED) · 42 caps · 13 goals |
| Bench depth | Timothy Tarpeh Weah · FW · Olympique Marseille (FRA) · 53 caps · 7 goals Folarin Jolaoluwa Balogun · FW · AS Monaco (FRA) · 31 caps · 12 goals Malik Leon Tillman · MF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen (GER) · 35 caps · 5 goals Christopher Jeffrey Richards · DF · Crystal Palace FC (ENG) · 40 caps · 3 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 10 / MF: 6 / FW: 7 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
PAR · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
Paraguay
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
Key players4
Likely XI candidates11/11
Injuries / suspensionssource pending
| Key players | Miguel Angel Almiron Rejala · MF · Atlanta United FC (USA) · 80 caps · 10 goals Gustavo Raul Gómez Portillo · DF · SE Palmeiras (BRA) · 94 caps · 4 goals Júnior Osmar Ignacio Alonso Mujica · DF · Atlético Mineiro (BRA) · 76 caps · 3 goals Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala · FW · US Cremonese (ITA) · 50 caps · 7 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Roberto Junior Fernandez Torres · GK · Cerro Porteño (PAR) · 30 caps · 0 goals Gustavo Raul Gómez Portillo · DF · SE Palmeiras (BRA) · 94 caps · 4 goals Júnior Osmar Ignacio Alonso Mujica · DF · Atlético Mineiro (BRA) · 76 caps · 3 goals Fabián Cornelio Balbuena González · DF · Grêmio FBPA (BRA) · 48 caps · 2 goals Omar Federico Alderete Fernandez · DF · Sunderland AFC (ENG) · 40 caps · 3 goals Miguel Angel Almiron Rejala · MF · Atlanta United FC (USA) · 80 caps · 10 goals Adrián Andrés Cubas · MF · Vancouver Whitecaps FC (CAN) · 38 caps · 0 goals Diego Alexander Gomez Amarilla · MF · Brighton & Hove Albion FC (ENG) · 28 caps · 3 goals Arnaldo Antonio Sanabria Ayala · FW · US Cremonese (ITA) · 50 caps · 7 goals Alejandro Sebastian Romero Gamarra · FW · Al Ain FC (UAE) · 35 caps · 6 goals Julio Cesar Enciso Espinola · FW · RC Strasbourg (FRA) · 37 caps · 5 goals |
| Bench depth | Gabriel Avalos Stumpfs · FW · CA Independiente (ARG) · 27 caps · 2 goals Ramón Sosa Acosta · MF · SE Palmeiras (BRA) · 30 caps · 1 goals Matias Galarza Fonda · MF · Atlanta United FC (USA) · 19 caps · 4 goals Damián Josue Bobadilla Benitez · MF · São Paulo FC (BRA) · 23 caps · 1 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 8 / MF: 9 / FW: 6 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
Trust & Transparency
Last updatedJul 19, 2026, 02:03 AM EDT
SourcesSchedule CSV / prediction CSV / public match center
Review typeModel backtest
Risk noteEntertainment reference only
Similar match paths
FAQ
What was the final score for United States vs Paraguay?4-1
The final score was 4-1, and the result is included in the Group D review.
Did the model hit the result direction?Hit
The pre-match lean was United States win, and the result direction hit.
What was the score error?3
The predicted score was 1-1; score error across both teams was 3.
What was the total-goal error?2.86
Actual total goals were 5 versus an expectation of about 2.14, leaving a 2.86 total-goal error.
How does this affect the group?Group D
It affects Group D points, goal difference and qualification pressure for related fixtures.
Is this review betting advice?No
This page is for entertainment, viewing, and analysis reference only. It is not betting advice.
Conclusion
The final score was 4-1. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.86.
For entertainment reference only. Forecasts, score probabilities, lineup analysis, and AI conclusions are not betting advice.