Completed reviews
United States 4-1 Paraguay Post-Match Analysis
Key Takeaway
The final score was 4-1. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.86.
Model hitHit
Score error3
Goal error2.86
Group impactGroup D
The final score was 4-1. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.86.
Post-Match Data Summary
| Final score | 4-1 |
|---|---|
| Pre-match predicted score | 1-1 |
| Model direction | Hit |
| Score error | 3 |
| Total-goal error | 2.86 |
| Actual vs expected goals | 5 / 2.14 |
Actual Result
United States and Paraguay completed their Group D match on Jun 12, 2026. The final score was 4-1, producing United States win.
Pre-Match Forecast Review
The pre-match probabilities were United States win 47%, draw 29%, and Paraguay win 25%. The highest-probability lean was United States win, and the result call hit.
Expected goals were United States 1.29 and Paraguay 0.85, which rounded to a 1-1 scoreline. The rounded score error was 3 goal(s).
Goals Review
The model expected about 2.14 total goals, while the match produced 5. Total-goal error was 2.86.
Model Backtest Learning Notes
United States 4-1 Paraguay is reviewed from final score, pre-match xG, and model lean. The pre-match lean was United States win, the actual result was United States, and the projected score was 1-1. The result direction was useful, but score error still shows whether goals were over- or under-estimated. Actual total goals were 5 versus a pre-match expectation of about 2.14, leaving a 2.86 total-goal error.
Pre-match leanUnited States win
Actual resultUnited States
Score error3
Goal error2.86
Group Impact
This match counts toward Group D. Read it alongside points, goal difference, remaining fixtures, and lineup availability.
Trust & Transparency
Last updatedJun 18, 2026, 12:27 AM EDT
SourcesSchedule CSV / prediction CSV / public match center
Review typeModel backtest
Risk noteEntertainment reference only
Conclusion
The final score was 4-1. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.86.
For entertainment reference only. Forecasts, score probabilities, lineup analysis, and AI conclusions are not betting advice.