Completed reviews
Turkiye 3-2 United States Post-Match Analysis
Turkiye vs United States: quick verdict
Model prefers United States at 52%, with a 1-2 score lean. This is a viewing reference, not betting advice.
AI citation: United States leads Turkiye vs United States at 52%; full 90-minute split is Turkiye 25%, Draw 23%, United States 52%; likely score 1-2, total xG 3.06; market odds coverage 100%, official odds pending.
Turkiye 25% / Draw 23% / United States 52%
Who is more likely to winUnited States 52%
Win probability52%
Predicted score1-2Most likely score, not a guaranteed result
Risk levelMedium upset risk: result path can swing / High goal risk: open scoring profile / Lineup risk pending: starters can move the forecast
Data updatedJul 19, 2026, 02:04 AM
Pre-match predictionUnited States 52%, predicted score 1-2.
Post-match reviewActual 3-2. Direction missed. Score error 2; total-goals error 1.94. Group impact: review the linked standings path.
Key Takeaway
The final score was 3-2. The model lean missed, the projected score was 1-2, score error was 2, and total-goal error was 1.94.
Model hitMiss
Score error2
Goal error1.94
Group impactGroup D
The final score was 3-2. The model lean missed, the projected score was 1-2, score error was 2, and total-goal error was 1.94.
Post-Match Data Summary
| Final score | 3-2 |
|---|---|
| Pre-match predicted score | 1-2 |
| Model direction | Miss |
| Score error | 2 |
| Total-goal error | 1.94 |
| Actual vs expected goals | 5 / 3.06 |
Actual Result
Turkiye and United States completed their Group D match on Jun 25, 2026. The final score was 3-2, producing Turkiye win.
Pre-Match Forecast Review
The pre-match probabilities were Turkiye win 25%, draw 23%, and United States win 52%. The highest-probability lean was United States win, and the result call missed.
Expected goals were Turkiye 1.22 and United States 1.84, which rounded to a 1-2 scoreline. The rounded score error was 2 goal(s).
Goals Review
The model expected about 3.06 total goals, while the match produced 5. Total-goal error was 1.94.
Model Backtest Learning Notes
Turkiye 3-2 United States is reviewed from final score, pre-match xG, and model lean. The pre-match lean was United States win, the actual result was Turkiye, and the projected score was 1-2. The result direction missed, so the review focuses on what the pre-match probabilities failed to capture. Actual total goals were 5 versus a pre-match expectation of about 3.06, leaving a 1.94 total-goal error.
Pre-match leanUnited States win
Actual resultTurkiye
Score error2
Goal error1.94
Post-Match Scenario, Error and Group Impact
Turkiye 3-2 United States is mainly a result direction missed review. The projected score was 1-2, score error was 2, and total-goal error was 1.94; the match played more open than the model expected. For Group D, the result changes points, goal difference and rotation pressure for the next fixtures.
Result directionresult direction missed
Goal tempothe match played more open than the model expected
StageGroup D
Next watchpoints / goal difference / rotation
Group Impact
This match counts toward Group D. Read it alongside points, goal difference, remaining fixtures, and lineup availability.
Players, Likely XI Candidates and Availability
This module uses the official FIFA Group D squad list: positions, clubs, international caps and goals.
TUR · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
Turkiye
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
Key players4
Likely XI candidates11/11
Injuries / suspensionssource pending
| Key players | Hakan Çalhanoğlu · MF · FC Internazionale Milano (ITA) · 108 caps · 22 goals Muhammed Kerem Aktürkoğlu · FW · Fenerbahçe SK (TUR) · 54 caps · 15 goals Kaan Ayhan · MF · Galatasaray SK (TUR) · 74 caps · 6 goals Merih Demi̇ral · DF · Al Ahli FC (KSA) · 65 caps · 6 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Uğurcan Çakir · GK · Galatasaray SK (TUR) · 42 caps · 0 goals Merih Demi̇ral · DF · Al Ahli FC (KSA) · 65 caps · 6 goals Mehmet Zeki Çelik · DF · AS Roma (ITA) · 63 caps · 3 goals Çağlar Söyüncü · DF · Fenerbahçe SK (TUR) · 61 caps · 2 goals Mert Müldür · DF · Fenerbahçe SK (TUR) · 48 caps · 3 goals Hakan Çalhanoğlu · MF · FC Internazionale Milano (ITA) · 108 caps · 22 goals Kaan Ayhan · MF · Galatasaray SK (TUR) · 74 caps · 6 goals Orkun Kökçü · MF · Beşiktaş JK (TUR) · 53 caps · 4 goals Muhammed Kerem Aktürkoğlu · FW · Fenerbahçe SK (TUR) · 54 caps · 15 goals İrfan Kahveci̇ · FW · Kasımpaşa SK (TUR) · 48 caps · 6 goals Arda Güler · FW · Real Madrid C. F. (ESP) · 33 caps · 7 goals |
| Bench depth | Barış Alper Yilmaz · FW · Galatasaray SK (TUR) · 38 caps · 5 goals Kenan Yildiz · FW · Juventus FC (ITA) · 31 caps · 5 goals Fehmi Mert Günok · GK · Fenerbahçe SK (TUR) · 37 caps · 0 goals İsmaİl Yüksek · MF · Fenerbahçe SK (TUR) · 34 caps · 1 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 9 / MF: 5 / FW: 9 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
USA · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
United States
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
Key players4
Likely XI candidates11/11
Injuries / suspensionssource pending
| Key players | Christian Mate Pulisic · FW · AC Milan (ITA) · 90 caps · 33 goals Weston James Earl Mc Kennie · MF · Juventus FC (ITA) · 71 caps · 12 goals Timothy Michael Ream · DF · Charlotte FC (USA) · 86 caps · 1 goals Brenden Russell Aaronson · FW · Leeds United FC (ENG) · 59 caps · 9 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Matthew Charles Turner · GK · New England Revolution (USA) · 55 caps · 0 goals Timothy Michael Ream · DF · Charlotte FC (USA) · 86 caps · 1 goals Antonee Robinson · DF · Fulham FC (ENG) · 58 caps · 5 goals Sergiño Gianni Dest · DF · PSV Eindhoven (NED) · 44 caps · 3 goals Miles Gordon Robinson · DF · FC Cincinnatti (USA) · 41 caps · 3 goals Weston James Earl Mc Kennie · MF · Juventus FC (ITA) · 71 caps · 12 goals Giovanni Alejandro Reyna · MF · Borussia Mönchengladbach (GER) · 43 caps · 10 goals Tyler Shaan Adams · MF · AFC Bournemouth (ENG) · 58 caps · 2 goals Christian Mate Pulisic · FW · AC Milan (ITA) · 90 caps · 33 goals Brenden Russell Aaronson · FW · Leeds United FC (ENG) · 59 caps · 9 goals Ricardo Daniel Pepi · FW · PSV Eindhoven (NED) · 42 caps · 13 goals |
| Bench depth | Timothy Tarpeh Weah · FW · Olympique Marseille (FRA) · 53 caps · 7 goals Folarin Jolaoluwa Balogun · FW · AS Monaco (FRA) · 31 caps · 12 goals Malik Leon Tillman · MF · Bayer 04 Leverkusen (GER) · 35 caps · 5 goals Christopher Jeffrey Richards · DF · Crystal Palace FC (ENG) · 40 caps · 3 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 10 / MF: 6 / FW: 7 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
Trust & Transparency
Last updatedJul 19, 2026, 02:03 AM EDT
SourcesSchedule CSV / prediction CSV / public match center
Review typeModel backtest
Risk noteEntertainment reference only
Similar match paths
FAQ
What was the final score for Turkiye vs United States?3-2
The final score was 3-2, and the result is included in the Group D review.
Did the model hit the result direction?Miss
The pre-match lean was United States win, and the result direction missed.
What was the score error?2
The predicted score was 1-2; score error across both teams was 2.
What was the total-goal error?1.94
Actual total goals were 5 versus an expectation of about 3.06, leaving a 1.94 total-goal error.
How does this affect the group?Group D
It affects Group D points, goal difference and qualification pressure for related fixtures.
Is this review betting advice?No
This page is for entertainment, viewing, and analysis reference only. It is not betting advice.
Conclusion
The final score was 3-2. The model lean missed, the projected score was 1-2, score error was 2, and total-goal error was 1.94.
For entertainment reference only. Forecasts, score probabilities, lineup analysis, and AI conclusions are not betting advice.