Completed reviews
United States 2-0 Australia Post-Match Analysis
Key Takeaway
The final score was 2-0. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 2, and total-goal error was 0.41.
Model hitHit
Score error2
Goal error0.41
Group impactGroup D
The final score was 2-0. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 2, and total-goal error was 0.41.
Post-Match Data Summary
| Final score | 2-0 |
|---|---|
| Pre-match predicted score | 1-1 |
| Model direction | Hit |
| Score error | 2 |
| Total-goal error | 0.41 |
| Actual vs expected goals | 2 / 2.41 |
Actual Result
United States and Australia completed their Group D match on Jun 19, 2026. The final score was 2-0, producing United States win.
Pre-Match Forecast Review
The pre-match probabilities were United States win 43%, draw 27%, and Australia win 30%. The highest-probability lean was United States win, and the result call hit.
Expected goals were United States 1.34 and Australia 1.06, which rounded to a 1-1 scoreline. The rounded score error was 2 goal(s).
Goals Review
The model expected about 2.41 total goals, while the match produced 2. Total-goal error was 0.41.
Model Backtest Learning Notes
United States 2-0 Australia is reviewed from final score, pre-match xG, and model lean. The pre-match lean was United States win, the actual result was United States, and the projected score was 1-1. The result direction was useful, but score error still shows whether goals were over- or under-estimated. Actual total goals were 2 versus a pre-match expectation of about 2.41, leaving a 0.41 total-goal error.
Pre-match leanUnited States win
Actual resultUnited States
Score error2
Goal error0.41
Group Impact
This match counts toward Group D. Read it alongside points, goal difference, remaining fixtures, and lineup availability.
Players, Likely XI Candidates and Availability
This module uses the official FIFA Group D squad list: positions, clubs, international caps and goals.
USA · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
United States
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
| Key players | Christian Mate Pulisic · FW · AC Milan (ITA) · 87 caps · 33 goals Weston James Earl Mc Kennie · MF · Juventus FC (ITA) · 67 caps · 12 goals Brenden Russell Aaronson · FW · Leeds United FC (ENG) · 58 caps · 9 goals Timothy Michael Ream · DF · Charlotte FC (USA) · 83 caps · 1 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Matthew Charles Turner · GK · New England Revolution (USA) · 54 caps · 0 goals Timothy Michael Ream · DF · Charlotte FC (USA) · 83 caps · 1 goals Antonee Robinson · DF · Fulham FC (ENG) · 55 caps · 5 goals Sergiño Gianni Dest · DF · PSV Eindhoven (NED) · 40 caps · 3 goals Miles Gordon Robinson · DF · FC Cincinnatti (USA) · 40 caps · 3 goals Weston James Earl Mc Kennie · MF · Juventus FC (ITA) · 67 caps · 12 goals Giovanni Alejandro Reyna · MF · Borussia Mönchengladbach (GER) · 39 caps · 10 goals Tyler Shaan Adams · MF · AFC Bournemouth (ENG) · 55 caps · 2 goals Christian Mate Pulisic · FW · AC Milan (ITA) · 87 caps · 33 goals Brenden Russell Aaronson · FW · Leeds United FC (ENG) · 58 caps · 9 goals Ricardo Daniel Pepi · FW · PSV Eindhoven (NED) · 38 caps · 13 goals |
| Bench depth | Timothy Tarpeh Weah · FW · Olympique Marseille (FRA) · 52 caps · 7 goals Folarin Jolaoluwa Balogun · FW · AS Monaco (FRA) · 28 caps · 11 goals Cristian Roldan · MF · Seattle Sounders FC (USA) · 47 caps · 0 goals Christopher Jeffrey Richards · DF · Crystal Palace FC (ENG) · 37 caps · 3 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 10 / MF: 6 / FW: 7 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
AUS · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
Australia
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
| Key players | Jackson Alexander Irvine · MF · FC St. Pauli (GER) · 83 caps · 14 goals Mathew Allan Leckie · FW · Melbourne City FC (AUS) · 81 caps · 14 goals Mathew David Ryan · GK · Levante UD (ESP) · 104 caps · 0 goals Aziz Behich · DF · Melbourne City FC (AUS) · 85 caps · 3 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Mathew David Ryan · GK · Levante UD (ESP) · 104 caps · 0 goals Aziz Behich · DF · Melbourne City FC (AUS) · 85 caps · 3 goals Harry James Souttar · DF · Leicester City FC (ENG) · 39 caps · 11 goals Milos Degenek · DF · APOEL FC (CYP) · 57 caps · 1 goals Jordan Jacob Bos · DF · Feyenoord Rotterdam (NED) · 28 caps · 4 goals Jackson Alexander Irvine · MF · FC St. Pauli (GER) · 83 caps · 14 goals Connor Isaac Metcalfe · MF · FC St. Pauli (GER) · 37 caps · 2 goals Aiden Connor O'neill · MF · New York City FC (USA) · 32 caps · 0 goals Mathew Allan Leckie · FW · Melbourne City FC (AUS) · 81 caps · 14 goals Awer Bul Mabil · FW · CD Castellón (ESP) · 38 caps · 10 goals Ajdin Hrustic · FW · SC Heracles Almelo (NED) · 37 caps · 3 goals |
| Bench depth | Nestory Irankunda · FW · Watford FC (ENG) · 16 caps · 6 goals Cameron Robert Burgess · DF · Swansea City AFC (WAL) · 28 caps · 0 goals Mohamed A Toure · FW · Norwich City FC (ENG) · 11 caps · 2 goals Nishan Matthew Velupillay · FW · Melbourne Victory FC (AUS) · 8 caps · 3 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 10 / MF: 5 / FW: 8 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
Trust & Transparency
Last updatedJun 19, 2026, 08:00 PM EDT
SourcesSchedule CSV / prediction CSV / public match center
Review typeModel backtest
Risk noteEntertainment reference only
Conclusion
The final score was 2-0. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 2, and total-goal error was 0.41.
For entertainment reference only. Forecasts, score probabilities, lineup analysis, and AI conclusions are not betting advice.