Completed reviews
Iraq 1-4 Norway Post-Match Analysis
Key Takeaway
The final score was 1-4. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-2, score error was 2, and total-goal error was 2.54.
Model hitHit
Score error2
Goal error2.54
Group impactGroup I
The final score was 1-4. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-2, score error was 2, and total-goal error was 2.54.
Post-Match Data Summary
| Final score | 1-4 |
|---|---|
| Pre-match predicted score | 1-2 |
| Model direction | Hit |
| Score error | 2 |
| Total-goal error | 2.54 |
| Actual vs expected goals | 5 / 2.46 |
Actual Result
Iraq and Norway completed their Group I match on Jun 16, 2026. The final score was 1-4, producing Norway win.
Pre-Match Forecast Review
The pre-match probabilities were Iraq win 19%, draw 25%, and Norway win 57%. The highest-probability lean was Norway win, and the result call hit.
Expected goals were Iraq 0.82 and Norway 1.64, which rounded to a 1-2 scoreline. The rounded score error was 2 goal(s).
Goals Review
The model expected about 2.46 total goals, while the match produced 5. Total-goal error was 2.54.
Model Backtest Learning Notes
Iraq 1-4 Norway is reviewed from final score, pre-match xG, and model lean. The pre-match lean was Norway win, the actual result was Norway, and the projected score was 1-2. The result direction was useful, but score error still shows whether goals were over- or under-estimated. Actual total goals were 5 versus a pre-match expectation of about 2.46, leaving a 2.54 total-goal error.
Pre-match leanNorway win
Actual resultNorway
Score error2
Goal error2.54
Group Impact
This match counts toward Group I. Read it alongside points, goal difference, remaining fixtures, and lineup availability.
Trust & Transparency
Last updatedJun 18, 2026, 12:27 AM EDT
SourcesSchedule CSV / prediction CSV / public match center
Review typeModel backtest
Risk noteEntertainment reference only
Conclusion
The final score was 1-4. The model lean hit, the projected score was 1-2, score error was 2, and total-goal error was 2.54.
For entertainment reference only. Forecasts, score probabilities, lineup analysis, and AI conclusions are not betting advice.