Completed reviews
Norway 3-2 Senegal Post-Match Analysis
Norway vs Senegal: quick verdict
Model prefers Senegal at 39%, with a 1-1 score lean. This is a viewing reference, not betting advice.
AI citation: Senegal leads Norway vs Senegal at 39%; full 90-minute split is Norway 33%, Draw 28%, Senegal 39%; likely score 1-1, total xG 2.38; market odds coverage 100%, official odds pending.
Norway 33% / Draw 28% / Senegal 39%
Who is more likely to winSenegal 39%
Win probability39%
Predicted score1-1Most likely score, not a guaranteed result
Risk levelHigh upset risk: no clean model edge / Low goal risk: lower-scoring profile / Lineup risk pending: starters can move the forecast
Data updatedJul 19, 2026, 02:04 AM
Pre-match predictionSenegal 39%, predicted score 1-1.
Post-match reviewActual 3-2. Direction missed. Score error 3; total-goals error 2.62. Group impact: review the linked standings path.
Key Takeaway
The final score was 3-2. The model lean missed, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.62.
Model hitMiss
Score error3
Goal error2.62
Group impactGroup I
The final score was 3-2. The model lean missed, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.62.
Post-Match Data Summary
| Final score | 3-2 |
|---|---|
| Pre-match predicted score | 1-1 |
| Model direction | Miss |
| Score error | 3 |
| Total-goal error | 2.62 |
| Actual vs expected goals | 5 / 2.38 |
Actual Result
Norway and Senegal completed their Group I match on Jun 22, 2026. The final score was 3-2, producing Norway win.
Pre-Match Forecast Review
The pre-match probabilities were Norway win 33%, draw 28%, and Senegal win 39%. The highest-probability lean was Senegal win, and the result call missed.
Expected goals were Norway 1.13 and Senegal 1.25, which rounded to a 1-1 scoreline. The rounded score error was 3 goal(s).
Goals Review
The model expected about 2.38 total goals, while the match produced 5. Total-goal error was 2.62.
Model Backtest Learning Notes
Norway 3-2 Senegal is reviewed from final score, pre-match xG, and model lean. The pre-match lean was Senegal win, the actual result was Norway, and the projected score was 1-1. The result direction missed, so the review focuses on what the pre-match probabilities failed to capture. Actual total goals were 5 versus a pre-match expectation of about 2.38, leaving a 2.62 total-goal error.
Pre-match leanSenegal win
Actual resultNorway
Score error3
Goal error2.62
Post-Match Scenario, Error and Group Impact
Norway 3-2 Senegal is mainly a result direction missed review. The projected score was 1-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.62; the match played more open than the model expected. For Group I, the result changes points, goal difference and rotation pressure for the next fixtures.
Result directionresult direction missed
Goal tempothe match played more open than the model expected
StageGroup I
Next watchpoints / goal difference / rotation
Group Impact
This match counts toward Group I. Read it alongside points, goal difference, remaining fixtures, and lineup availability.
Players, Likely XI Candidates and Availability
This module uses the official FIFA Group I squad list: positions, clubs, international caps and goals.
NOR · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
Norway
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
Key players4
Likely XI candidates11/11
Injuries / suspensionssource pending
| Key players | Erling Braut Haaland · FW · Manchester City FC (ENG) · 55 caps · 62 goals Alexander Sørloth · FW · Atlético De Madrid (ESP) · 77 caps · 26 goals Martín Ødegaard · MF · Arsenal FC (ENG) · 73 caps · 5 goals Ørjan Haskjold Nyland · GK · Sevilla FC (ESP) · 76 caps · 0 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Ørjan Haskjold Nyland · GK · Sevilla FC (ESP) · 76 caps · 0 goals Kristoffer Vassbakk Köpp Ajer · DF · Brentford FC (ENG) · 57 caps · 2 goals Leo Skiri Østigård · DF · Genoa CFC (ITA) · 43 caps · 2 goals Marcus Holmgren Pedersen · DF · Torino FC (ITA) · 36 caps · 1 goals David Møller Wolfe · DF · Wolverhampton Wanderers FC (ENG) · 27 caps · 1 goals Martín Ødegaard · MF · Arsenal FC (ENG) · 73 caps · 5 goals Sander Gard Bolin Berge · MF · Fulham FC (ENG) · 71 caps · 1 goals Kristian Thorstvedt · MF · US Sassuolo (ITA) · 39 caps · 4 goals Erling Braut Haaland · FW · Manchester City FC (ENG) · 55 caps · 62 goals Alexander Sørloth · FW · Atlético De Madrid (ESP) · 77 caps · 26 goals Antonio Eromonsele Nordby Nusa · FW · RB Leipzig (GER) · 30 caps · 9 goals |
| Bench depth | Julian Ryerson · FW · Borussia Dortmund (GER) · 47 caps · 1 goals Patrick Berg · MF · FK Bodø/Glimt (NOR) · 49 caps · 0 goals Jørgen Strand Larsen · FW · Crystal Palace FC (ENG) · 30 caps · 6 goals Morten Thorsby · MF · US Cremonese (ITA) · 32 caps · 0 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 8 / MF: 10 / FW: 5 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
SEN · FIFA World Cup 2026 squad lists
Senegal
26 squad players connected; availability: no verified injury feed connected.
Key players4
Likely XI candidates11/11
Injuries / suspensionssource pending
| Key players | Sadio Mane · FW · Al Nassr FC (KSA) · 134 caps · 54 goals Idrissa Gana Gueye · MF · Everton FC (ENG) · 140 caps · 7 goals Ismaila Sarr · FW · Crystal Palace FC (ENG) · 88 caps · 23 goals Kalidou Koulibaly · DF · Al Hilal SC (KSA) · 106 caps · 2 goals |
|---|---|
| Likely XI candidates | Edouard Osoque Mendy · GK · Al Ahli FC (KSA) · 60 caps · 0 goals Kalidou Koulibaly · DF · Al Hilal SC (KSA) · 106 caps · 2 goals Krepin Diatta · DF · AS Monaco (FRA) · 66 caps · 2 goals Abdoulaye Seck · DF · Maccabi Haifa FC (ISR) · 24 caps · 4 goals Moussa Niakhate · DF · Olympique Lyonnais (FRA) · 36 caps · 0 goals Idrissa Gana Gueye · MF · Everton FC (ENG) · 140 caps · 7 goals Lamine Camara · MF · AS Monaco (FRA) · 49 caps · 7 goals Pape Alassane Gueye · MF · Villarreal CF (ESP) · 46 caps · 8 goals Sadio Mane · FW · Al Nassr FC (KSA) · 134 caps · 54 goals Ismaila Sarr · FW · Crystal Palace FC (ENG) · 88 caps · 23 goals Nicolas Jackson · FW · FC Bayern München (GER) · 38 caps · 8 goals |
| Bench depth | Iliman Cheikh Baroy Ndiaye · FW · Everton FC (ENG) · 44 caps · 5 goals Pape Matar Sarr · MF · Tottenham Hotspur FC (ENG) · 43 caps · 4 goals Mouhamadou Habib Mbacke Diarra · MF · Sunderland AFC (ENG) · 24 caps · 6 goals Ismaila Pathe Ciss · MF · Rayo Vallecano (ESP) · 35 caps · 0 goals |
| Position depth | GK: 3 / DF: 8 / MF: 7 / FW: 8 |
| Injuries / suspensions | No verified injury or suspension feed is connected; no firm absence claim is shown without a public source. |
Likely XI candidates are a site estimate, not official starting lineups. Entertainment and analysis reference only.
Trust & Transparency
Last updatedJul 19, 2026, 02:03 AM EDT
SourcesSchedule CSV / prediction CSV / public match center
Review typeModel backtest
Risk noteEntertainment reference only
Similar match paths
FAQ
What was the final score for Norway vs Senegal?3-2
The final score was 3-2, and the result is included in the Group I review.
Did the model hit the result direction?Miss
The pre-match lean was Senegal win, and the result direction missed.
What was the score error?3
The predicted score was 1-1; score error across both teams was 3.
What was the total-goal error?2.62
Actual total goals were 5 versus an expectation of about 2.38, leaving a 2.62 total-goal error.
How does this affect the group?Group I
It affects Group I points, goal difference and qualification pressure for related fixtures.
Is this review betting advice?No
This page is for entertainment, viewing, and analysis reference only. It is not betting advice.
Conclusion
The final score was 3-2. The model lean missed, the projected score was 1-1, score error was 3, and total-goal error was 2.62.
For entertainment reference only. Forecasts, score probabilities, lineup analysis, and AI conclusions are not betting advice.